TomS wrote:
> -hh wrote:
>> TomS wrote:
>> > -hh wrote:
>> >> Alan wrote:
>> >> > TomS wrote:
>> > …
>> >> > >>> A bit short of 10%, actually, since (100.20 + 10%) is 110.22 & above your sell point...
>> >> > >> And, it's NOT GAMBLING: I …
>> >>
>> >> Denial, despite:
>> >>
>> >> "BUT you can observe human behavior and bet on the probabilities..."
>> >> ^^^^^
Silence from Thomas.
>> >> ... 'chickened out', because he knows that its gambling on the odds.
>> >
>> > You were the one saying that this was a TERRIBLE investment,...
>>
>> False. I identified risk while you initially claimed that you weren’t gambling.
>
> TRUE - you said it was over-valued and compared it, unfavorably, to gambling.
I asked about a similar crash as a risk:
-hh>> a crash-dip back in December (lower than this one) which prompts looking into why. Good luck.
TS>
TS> That's a TOTALLY different conversation.
(Continued):
TS> That event CAN'T happen again - ...
They’ve still had *two* such shock crashes within twelve months.
>> > not that I would fall short by a QUARTER OF A PERCENT!
>>
>> False. You made a claim for your plan, which you then admitted that you fell short of.
>
> TRUE - I NEVER stated that, just that this was a great opportunity. YOU asked what
> a decent return would be, and I gave you an EXAMPLE.
No, I asked what your specific plan was:
-hh >>> Vague. So then your plan is to sell at ... what price? ...
-hh >>> And similarly, in what timeframe ... within a week? ...
TS >>
TS >> I already told you: a week or two. Just getting back to normal
TS >>(10% gain) is quite acceptable to me.
-hh>
-hh> So then you’re predicting that it will be at least 10% above your
-hh> previously listed buy price within ~two weeks, at which point you’ll sell.
You didn’t say that that articulation was in any way wrong. You later chickened out.
> Every situation has to be evaluated dynamically, and I determined that a sell
> point of 110 was feasible. This met the criteria of "getting back to normal,"..
“Normal”? Even though just two weeks before you bought ALXN was at 123.49,
which is 12% higher than your “+10%” of 110? And even though for most days
over the past six months it had been higher than 120? Interesting.
>> > I set a predetermined sell point that met my expectations and placed a GTC limit order on that price.
>>
>> If right after you bought that you had previously said “sell at 110, which
>> is roughly 10% gain”, you would be credible. You didn’t.
YA example of Tom with his documentation failures.
>> > So far, I have given you, free of charge, trades that would have realized you a
>> > total of THIRTY FOUR PERCENT gain, and all you do is BITCH!!!!!!!
>>
>> So? I gave you a free tip which would have delivered a 50% gain faster.
>> Because as per your narrative, the risk levels don’t matter. That’s why
>> even you, after your initial denial, admitted that you had merely made a bet.
>
> I don't recall such a "tip" - if you said anything, it was unactionable.
“Put your money down on Black and spin that roulette wheel!”
>> For example, let’s hear your investment prognosis on another pharma, ARNA.
>
> Would not touch ARNA - no products for sale, ...
Incorrect - Lorcaserin, is FDA approved and on sale the USA.
They have some sales in Asia and have been working on EU.
> ...missed last two earnings estimates,...
Context. Look at the two quarters before, and then back at the 1Q spike.
> > ...stock chart looks horrible, and analysts mostly have SELL ratings on it.
Most have ‘sell’? Really? Just who is saying that? Cite, please.
Because:
<
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/arna/analystestimates>
Has its analyst reports as: 9 Buy,1 Hold, 0 Sell (9-1-0).
Similarly,
<
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARNA/analysis?p=ARNA>
...has no sells either: 4-3-0.
Seems that there is a lot of long term interest on their development pipeline.
-hh